Tigres UANL 2-2 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 May 2025

📅12/05/2025 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.46
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.57
X/2
10%
8.47
X/X
13%
5.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.9
2/2
10%
6.38
2/X
9%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.58/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.41
+5% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
19.4 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Necaxa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.29 xG 0.86
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
413 Passes 269
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 0-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
02.03.2025 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
07.07.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
21.04.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 5-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
21.08.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-3 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
04.03.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
2-2
AWAY Necaxa
1.88 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
254 Passes 220
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 30
27 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL and Necaxa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tigres UANL at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 53% of the ball to Necaxa's 47%, shots finished 21-19, expected goals 1.88 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.50 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?

Tigres UANL 2-2 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 45%, draw 27%, Necaxa 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tigres UANL) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ BTTS Yes
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