Botev Plovdiv 1-2 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 12 May 2026

📅12/05/2026 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.2pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.75/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/0.59
-22% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +65%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2026 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-2 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
02.12.2025 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-0 HT 0-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
04.08.2025 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-5 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
09.03.2025 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1-1 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
23.09.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 1-0 HT 0-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
27.05.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-1 HT 0-1 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1-2
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali nicked a narrow win over Botev Plovdiv 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arda Kardzhali as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 57% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 43%, shots finished 13-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arda Kardzhali led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.33 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

Botev Plovdiv 1-2 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 12/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 32%, draw 26%, Arda Kardzhali 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
12 May 2026
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