Cherno More Varna 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 12 May 2026

📅12/05/2026 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.56
Over 2.5
45%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
4%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 29%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +25%
1.63/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.78
+49% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +38%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.04.2026 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 HT 0-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
15.02.2026 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
23.08.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
08.02.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-2 HT 0-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
19.08.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
28.04.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
2-0
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 54% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 46%, shots finished 6-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.83 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Cherno More Varna 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 12/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 44%, draw 30%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
12 May 2026
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