Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 15 Feb 2026

📅15/02/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
33%
2.88
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.8pp
33%
Draw
31%
+1.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.3pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 39%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.51/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.78
-54% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +33%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
240 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
08.02.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-2 HT 0-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
19.08.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
28.04.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
08.04.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
07.10.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-2 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-1
AWAY Cherno More Varna
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 33% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 39% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 61%, shots finished 8-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.17 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 34%, draw 33%, Cherno More Varna 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
15 Feb 2026
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