Cherno More Varna 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
60%
+2.0pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.3pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.8pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.94/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.66
+11% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
08.02.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-2 HT 0-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
19.08.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
28.04.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
08.04.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
07.10.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-2 HT 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
02.06.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Plovdiv shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Cherno More Varna carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 54% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 46%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.33 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Cherno More Varna 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 62%, draw 21%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
23 Aug 2025
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