Athlone Town 4-1 Longford Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 12 Jul 2024

📅12/07/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.0pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athlone Town EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Longford Town EU Bookmakers 23%
-22% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.05/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.63
-41% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athlone Town
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Longford Town
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Athlone Town Athlone Town İR1
22.03.2024 Athlone Town Athlone Town 3-3 HT 0-3 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
20.10.2023 Athlone Town Athlone Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
12.08.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 1-1 Athlone Town Athlone Town İR1
02.06.2023 Athlone Town Athlone Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
18.02.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 1-3 HT 1-1 Athlone Town Athlone Town İR1
POST-MATCH Athlone Town vs Longford Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athlone Town ran out comfortable winners over Longford Town 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Athlone Town as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athlone Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Athlone Town and 1.17 for Longford Town.

What was the final score of Athlone Town vs Longford Town?

Athlone Town 4-1 Longford Town in the Ireland - 1st Division on 12/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athlone Town vs Longford Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athlone Town win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Athlone Town 53%, draw 24%, Longford Town 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athlone Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athlone Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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