Leon 1-3 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Aug 2025

Leon
1-3 HT 0-2
Monterrey
📅12/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Leon vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+1.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
43%
Away Win
43%
+0.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.25/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.12
+8% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
277 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 82%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
19.3 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Leon vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Monterrey
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.12 xG 1.75
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
330 Passes 341
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2025 Leon Leon 0-2 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
11.11.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 2-1 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
21.04.2024 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.09.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
28.02.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
07.08.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 5-1 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 1-3 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-3
AWAY Monterrey
0.93 xG 1.71
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
342 Passes 307
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leon vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey saw off Leon 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leon had 52% of the ball to Monterrey's 48%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 0.93 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Leon and 2.17 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Leon vs Monterrey?

Leon 1-3 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 12/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Leon 32%, draw 24%, Monterrey 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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