Spartak Moskova 1-1 Makhachkala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Cup, 12 Aug 2025

📅12/08/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
16%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 29% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.3pp
16%
Away Win
16%
+0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.2pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
2.22/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.99
+19% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +92%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
383 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Makhachkala
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
2.04 xG 0.69
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
428 Passes 142
84% Pass Accuracy 58%
29 Box Touches 12
31 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.07.2025 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUS
11.04.2025 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-2 HT 0-2 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUS
22.10.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
15.09.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 1-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
27.08.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-1 HT 0-1 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
1-1
AWAY Makhachkala
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova and Makhachkala shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Spartak Moskova at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 56% of the ball to Makhachkala's 44%, shots finished 9-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Spartak Moskova and 0.80 for Makhachkala.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala?

Spartak Moskova 1-1 Makhachkala in the Russia - Cup on 12/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Makhachkala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 61%, draw 23%, Makhachkala 16%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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