Botafogo 1-1 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 32% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.09
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.8
X/1
14%
4.0
X/2
8%
10.3
X/X
10%
4.65
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
8.86
2/X
7%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.9pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.29/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.96
-28% / +110% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.7
17.3 Crosses 21.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.46 xG 0.93
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
364 Passes 356
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.08.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
13.07.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
06.11.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
30.06.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
07.11.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
02.07.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
1-1
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.96 xG 1.37
57% Ball Possession 43%
22 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 0
432 Passes 331
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo and Vasco da Gama shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Botafogo had 57% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 43%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 1.96 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botafogo and 0.50 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Botafogo 1-1 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Cup on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 52%, draw 25%, Vasco da Gama 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Botafogo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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