Slaven Belupo 2-1 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 12 Sep 2025

📅12/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.7
4-5 Goals
22%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
16.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
14%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
31%
-4.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +1%
1.28/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.02
+13% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
21.5 Crosses 14.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Istra 1961
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.82 xG 0.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 302
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-1 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
23.02.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
22.11.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-3 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
31.08.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
26.04.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 3-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
16.02.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 0-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
2-1
AWAY Istra 1961
1.45 xG 0.90
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
267 Passes 260
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo squeezed past Istra 1961 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Slaven Belupo as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 49% of the ball to Istra 1961's 51%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.45 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.33 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961?

Slaven Belupo 2-1 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 12/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slaven Belupo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 46%, draw 27%, Istra 1961 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Slaven Belupo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Slaven Belupo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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