Guangxi Baoyun 3-2 Yanbian Longding — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.29
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.16
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 25% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
73%
-13.5pp
23%
Draw
17%
+5.8pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+7.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.5pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangxi Baoyun EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Yanbian Longding EU Bookmakers 12%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.21/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.19
-10% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 72%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
17.7 Crosses 13.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangxi Baoyun
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Yanbian Longding
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.77 xG 0.71
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
256 Passes 295
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
01.06.2024 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding 2-4 HT 2-0 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun ÇİN2
15.10.2023 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding 2-2 HT 1-1 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun ÇİN2
28.06.2023 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun 2-1 HT 1-0 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding ÇİN2
POST-MATCH Guangxi Baoyun vs Yanbian Longding
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangxi Baoyun squeezed past Yanbian Longding 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Guangxi Baoyun as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Guangxi Baoyun had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Guangxi Baoyun and 1.67 for Yanbian Longding.

What was the final score of Guangxi Baoyun vs Yanbian Longding?

Guangxi Baoyun 3-2 Yanbian Longding in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangxi Baoyun vs Yanbian Longding?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangxi Baoyun win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Guangxi Baoyun 60%, draw 23%, Yanbian Longding 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guangxi Baoyun) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guangxi Baoyun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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