Salisbury 2-2 AFC Hornchurch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.43
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
7%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.0pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salisbury EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 40%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.00/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.33
-24% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salisbury
2-2
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Salisbury vs AFC Hornchurch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salisbury and AFC Hornchurch shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Salisbury at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salisbury had 54% of the ball to AFC Hornchurch's 46%, shots finished 15-7.

What was the final score of Salisbury vs AFC Hornchurch?

Salisbury 2-2 AFC Hornchurch in the England - Conference on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salisbury vs AFC Hornchurch?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salisbury win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Salisbury 42%, draw 25%, AFC Hornchurch 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Salisbury) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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