Buxton 1-2 Hereford FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.68
No
56%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.52
6+ Goals
8%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 35% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.9pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buxton EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Hereford FC EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.03/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.07
-21% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +21%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buxton
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Hereford FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Hereford FC Hereford FC 2-2 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
21.11.2023 Buxton Buxton 2-1 HT 1-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
21.01.2023 Buxton Buxton 0-1 HT 0-0 Hereford FC Hereford FC İCON
20.08.2022 Hereford FC Hereford FC 2-0 HT 0-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buxton
1-2
AWAY Hereford FC
54% Ball Possession 46%
4 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Buxton vs Hereford FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hereford FC nicked a narrow win over Buxton 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Hereford FC found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Buxton had 54% of the ball to Hereford FC's 46%, shots finished 4-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hereford FC led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Buxton and 1.50 for Hereford FC.

What was the final score of Buxton vs Hereford FC?

Buxton 1-2 Hereford FC in the England - Conference on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buxton vs Hereford FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hereford FC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Buxton 33%, draw 26%, Hereford FC 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hereford FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hereford FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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