AFC Wimbledon 4-0 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2024

AFC Wimbledon
4-0 HT 3-0
Carlisle United
📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.76
No
59%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 33% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.39
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
11%
8.53
X/X
14%
4.8
2/1
9%
24.0
2/2
12%
6.5
2/X
6%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.3pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.45/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.18
+4% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
331 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 66%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.9 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.79 xG 0.97
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
208 Passes 216
62% Pass Accuracy 62%
10 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
17.09.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
23.02.2016 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
22.08.2015 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
17.01.2015 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-3 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
06.09.2014 Carlisle United Carlisle United 4-4 HT 2-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2

AFC Wimbledon 4-0 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
4-0
AWAY Carlisle United
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
249 Passes 508
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon swept aside Carlisle United 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had AFC Wimbledon as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 36% of the ball to Carlisle United's 64%, shots finished 13-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.67 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle United?

AFC Wimbledon 4-0 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 45%, draw 27%, Carlisle United 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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