Cheltenham Town 2-3 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2024

Cheltenham Town
2-3 HT 0-2
Swindon Town
📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Cheltenham Town vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.95
6+ Goals
10%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.22
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
16%
5.86
X/2
15%
5.09
X/X
11%
4.28
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
13%
3.46
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.9pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-4.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cheltenham Town v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -26%
1.48/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.34
+0% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
270 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 69%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
18.2 Crosses 21.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7

Cheltenham Town vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.95 xG 1.24
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
256 Passes 354
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.11.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town FAK
09.11.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town FAK
24.08.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-2 HT 2-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
27.04.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 3-2 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
22.12.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
10.03.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-3 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2

Cheltenham Town 2-3 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
2-3
AWAY Swindon Town
1.24 xG 1.52
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
212 Passes 193
61% Pass Accuracy 56%
21 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town squeezed past Cheltenham Town 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Swindon Town found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 52% of the ball to Swindon Town's 48%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.24 to 1.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cheltenham Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cheltenham Town and 0.83 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Swindon Town?

Cheltenham Town 2-3 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 40%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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