Chesterfield 2-2 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2024

Chesterfield
2-2 HT 1-1
Notts County
📅12/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Chesterfield vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
2.83
6+ Goals
12%
7.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.86
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
29.0
1/X
5%
12.25
X/1
14%
5.13
X/2
12%
6.98
X/X
13%
5.38
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
16%
4.41
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.4pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chesterfield v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +16%
0.61/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.71
+20% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
268 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 76%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
14.0 Crosses 15.2
– Yellow Cards 1.7

Chesterfield vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Notts County
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
49% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.05.2023 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-2 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
11.02.2023 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-2 HT 1-1 Notts County Notts County İBSL
20.08.2022 Notts County Notts County 2-2 HT 0-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
26.03.2022 Notts County Notts County 1-1 HT 1-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
01.03.2022 Chesterfield Chesterfield 3-1 HT 0-1 Notts County Notts County İBSL
05.06.2021 Notts County Notts County 3-2 HT 1-2 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL

Chesterfield 2-2 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
2-2
AWAY Notts County
2.00 xG 1.70
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
344 Passes 444
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
40 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chesterfield vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield and Notts County couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Chesterfield had 44% of the ball to Notts County's 56%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 2.00 to 1.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Chesterfield and 1.83 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Chesterfield vs Notts County?

Chesterfield 2-2 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesterfield vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 38%, draw 26%, Notts County 37%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chesterfield) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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