Doncaster Rovers 1-1 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
8%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 34% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.19
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.25
X/1
13%
3.85
X/2
10%
9.6
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
9%
7.77
2/X
8%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+7.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.3pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.79/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.40
+20% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
299 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 71%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.7 Crosses 16.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Doncaster Rovers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.17 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
288 Passes 249
71% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
10.05.2024 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-2 HT 0-2 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
06.05.2024 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-2 HT 0-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
09.03.2024 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-0 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
25.11.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 3-2 HT 2-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
01.04.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 0-2 HT 0-2 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
22.10.2022 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-1 HT 1-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Doncaster Rovers
1-1
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
2.49 xG 0.78
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
424 Passes 226
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
35 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Doncaster Rovers vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Doncaster Rovers and Crewe Alexandra couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Doncaster Rovers at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Doncaster Rovers had 62% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 38%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.49 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crewe Alexandra led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Doncaster Rovers and 1.33 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Doncaster Rovers vs Crewe Alexandra?

Doncaster Rovers 1-1 Crewe Alexandra in the England - 2nd Division on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Doncaster Rovers vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Doncaster Rovers 48%, draw 26%, Crewe Alexandra 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Doncaster Rovers), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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