Harborough Town 1-0 Bury — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.38
Over
47%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2-3
42%
4-5
21%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.2pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Harborough Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Bury EU Bookmakers 37%
+49% / +49% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
4.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/2.00
+150% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Harborough Town vs Bury
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harborough Town edged past Bury 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Harborough Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

What was the final score of Harborough Town vs Bury?

Harborough Town 1-0 Bury in the England - FA Cup on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Harborough Town vs Bury?

Before kick-off our model rated a Harborough Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Harborough Town 42%, draw 27%, Bury 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Harborough Town), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Harborough Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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