Lexington 1-2 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 Oct 2025

📅12/10/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.32
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
8%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 34%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.60/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.24
+14% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
18.1 Crosses 14.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lexington
0W-0D-1L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.19 xG 1.27
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 4
389 Passes 331
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 4
06.04.2025 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-1 HT 2-0 Lexington Lexington USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
1-2
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
2.58 xG 1.17
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
404 Passes 329
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive edged past Lexington 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 36% — and on the day El Paso Locomotive made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lexington had 54% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 46%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.58 to 1.17 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lexington.

What was the final score of Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?

Lexington 1-2 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lexington 38%, draw 25%, El Paso Locomotive 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lexington), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lexington) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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