New Mexico United vs Orange County SC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New Mexico United v Orange County SC — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Orange County SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
3-1
HT 1-0
Orange County SC
USLP
1-2
HT 0-2
New Mexico United
USLP
New Mexico United 3-3 Orange County SC — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United and Orange County SC couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, New Mexico United had 65% of the ball to Orange County SC's 35%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 3.42 to 1.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for New Mexico United and 0.50 for Orange County SC.
What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?
New Mexico United 3-3 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 47%, draw 24%, Orange County SC 28%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United), Under 2.5 went the other way.