New Mexico United 3-3 Orange County SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 Oct 2025

📅12/10/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 29% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -1%
1.29/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.20
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
382 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
15.2 Crosses 14.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Orange County SC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.91 xG 1.12
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
344 Passes 273
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2025 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-3 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
20.10.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.07.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
30.07.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
30.04.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
05.06.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-2 HT 0-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
3-3
AWAY Orange County SC
3.42 xG 1.75
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 8
480 Passes 220
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Orange County SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United and Orange County SC couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 65% of the ball to Orange County SC's 35%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 3.42 to 1.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for New Mexico United and 0.50 for Orange County SC.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?

New Mexico United 3-3 Orange County SC in the USL Championship on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Orange County SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 47%, draw 24%, Orange County SC 28%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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