Orange County SC 0-3 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 18 May 2025

Orange County SC
0-3 HT 0-1
New Mexico United
📅18/05/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

Orange County SC vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Orange County SC v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orange County SC EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.28/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.36
+1% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
16.8 Crosses 11.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2

Orange County SC vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orange County SC
1W-2D-3L
AWAY New Mexico United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 1.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
299 Passes 359
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.10.2024 Orange County SC Orange County SC 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
04.07.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
30.07.2023 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
30.04.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-1 HT 1-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP
05.06.2022 Orange County SC Orange County SC 1-2 HT 0-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
27.03.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-1 HT 0-0 Orange County SC Orange County SC USLP

Orange County SC 0-3 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orange County SC
0-3
AWAY New Mexico United
0.98 xG 2.95
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
250 Passes 348
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 9
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Orange County SC vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United cruised past Orange County SC 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 29%) promised a tight game; New Mexico United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orange County SC had 45% of the ball to New Mexico United's 55%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.98 to 2.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Orange County SC and 1.33 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?

Orange County SC 0-3 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orange County SC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Orange County SC 40%, draw 30%, New Mexico United 29%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Orange County SC), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orange County SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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