Hartford Athletic 1-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
46%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.9
Over 2.5
39%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.25
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.36
6+ Goals
7%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 32% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.4pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-4.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
49%
+12.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
51%
-12.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 55%
-11% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.26/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.95
-18% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.5 Crosses 23.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartford Athletic
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Louisville City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.98 xG 1.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
325 Passes 348
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2024 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 2-1 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
08.10.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-1 HT 0-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
04.06.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
16.10.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 1-0 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
25.06.2022 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-2 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
08.09.2021 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 2-4 HT 2-2 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartford Athletic
1-1
AWAY Louisville City
0.49 xG 1.04
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
281 Passes 245
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartford Athletic and Louisville City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Louisville City at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Hartford Athletic had 54% of the ball to Louisville City's 46%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 0.49 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.67 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?

Hartford Athletic 1-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hartford Athletic 26%, draw 28%, Louisville City 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Louisville City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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