Phoenix Rising 2-0 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.86
Over 2.5
40%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
2-3 Goals
46%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.43
6+ Goals
7%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
50%
+10.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
50%
-10.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.0pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 28%
-13% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.31/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.39
-7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.5 Crosses 18.5
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.28 xG 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
379 Passes 305
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 3-1 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
05.10.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-2 HT 0-2 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
17.03.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 1-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
30.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-2 HT 0-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
16.04.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
22.09.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 3-3 HT 3-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
2-0
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.39 xG 0.73
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 4
295 Passes 378
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 7
FAQ Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Phoenix Rising beat Monterey Bay 2-0 in the USL Championship on 18 May 2025. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

It projected a tighter game, with under 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score was close to even at 43%.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 45% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 55%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.39 to 0.73.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay lead the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Phoenix Rising and 1.67 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?

Phoenix Rising 2-0 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 42%, draw 27%, Monterey Bay 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Phoenix Rising), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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