Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 Rhode Island — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 27% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-4.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.2pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 43%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.79/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.24
+3% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
16.9 Crosses 17.3
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Rhode Island
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.32 xG 1.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
300 Passes 266
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Rhode Island Rhode Island 3-1 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
31.03.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
0-3
AWAY Rhode Island
1.00 xG 0.75
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 2
281 Passes 440
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rhode Island swept aside Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Rhode Island made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 42% of the ball to Rhode Island's 58%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.00 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 2.00 for Rhode Island.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 Rhode Island in the USL Championship on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Rhode Island?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rhode Island win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 32%, draw 29%, Rhode Island 39%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rhode Island), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rhode Island) ✓ Over 2.5
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