Rhode Island 5-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 Oct 2025

📅12/10/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.07
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.46
6+ Goals
7%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 36% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rhode Island EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.25/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.40
-22% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
350 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.3 Crosses 13.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rhode Island
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 1.22
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
324 Passes 293
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2025 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
06.10.2024 Rhode Island Rhode Island 3-1 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
31.03.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 HT 0-1 Rhode Island Rhode Island USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rhode Island
5-0
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
2.88 xG 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 1
350 Passes 402
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rhode Island ran out comfortable winners over Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rhode Island as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Rhode Island had 47% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 53%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.88 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rhode Island had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Rhode Island and 1.67 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Rhode Island 5-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rhode Island win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Rhode Island 43%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 32%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rhode Island) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rhode Island) ✗ Under 2.5
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