Louisville City 1-0 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 12 Oct 2025

📅12/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.34
Draw
16%
4.81
Away
13%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.38
Over 2.5
58%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
53%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
70%
+0.2pp
16%
Draw
18%
-1.4pp
13%
Away Win
12%
+1.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
2.00/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.22
+14% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
23.4 Crosses 11.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Miami FC
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.92 xG 0.99
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
355 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2025 Miami FC Miami FC 2-4 HT 2-2 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
03.10.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 3-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
02.06.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
21.09.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 4-3 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
14.05.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 1-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
28.08.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
1-0
AWAY Miami FC
1.06 xG 0.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 0
295 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City edged past Miami FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Louisville City had 47% of the ball to Miami FC's 53%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.06 to 0.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Louisville City and 1.50 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Miami FC?

Louisville City 1-0 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 12/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 70%, draw 16%, Miami FC 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
12 Oct 2025
02:00 Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Indy Eleven Analysis →
02:00 Rhode Island vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Analysis →
02:00 Hartford Athletic vs Sacramento Republic Analysis →
02:00 Lexington vs El Paso Locomotive Analysis →
03:00 FC Tulsa vs San Antonio Analysis →
04:00 New Mexico United vs Orange County SC Analysis →