Miami FC 2-4 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.48
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
55%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.53
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
5%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
19%
+1.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
55%
Away Win
58%
-2.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.2pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 62%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -18%
1.21/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.06
+0% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
13.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
11.3 Crosses 22.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miami FC
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Louisville City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.80 xG 1.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
306 Passes 399
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.10.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 3-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
02.06.2024 Miami FC Miami FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
21.09.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 4-3 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
14.05.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 1-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
28.08.2022 Miami FC Miami FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
20.03.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
2-4
AWAY Louisville City
1.48 xG 1.76
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
337 Passes 131
78% Pass Accuracy 65%
19 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City saw off Miami FC 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Miami FC had 67% of the ball to Louisville City's 33%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.48 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Miami FC and 2.17 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Louisville City?

Miami FC 2-4 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 21%, draw 24%, Louisville City 55%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
17 Aug 2025
02:00 Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven Analysis →
02:00 Hartford Athletic vs FC Tulsa Analysis →
02:00 Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery Analysis →
04:00 New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Analysis →
04:00 El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay Analysis →
04:00 San Antonio vs Lexington Analysis →