El Paso Locomotive 2-2 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
17%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 28% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
60%
-0.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
17%
Away Win
18%
-0.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.75/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.57
+24% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
16.9 Crosses 16.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.44 xG 0.96
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
392 Passes 348
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.06.2025 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-2 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
25.08.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
14.03.2024 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
03.09.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-2 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
09.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
07.08.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 1-0 HT 0-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
2-2
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.38 xG 2.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
364 Passes 291
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive and Monterey Bay couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had El Paso Locomotive at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 55% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 45%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.38 to 2.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterey Bay led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 0.83 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay?

El Paso Locomotive 2-2 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 59%, draw 23%, Monterey Bay 17%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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