New Mexico United 2-2 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
16%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
2.76
6+ Goals
14%
7.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
63%
+0.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.9pp
16%
Away Win
16%
+0.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.59/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.73
-12% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 77%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
15.1 Crosses 13.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.77 xG 1.27
52% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
368 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-3 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
10.11.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-1 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
01.08.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
05.05.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
31.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-3 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
05.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-2 HT 1-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
2-2
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
0.61 xG 1.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 Passes 230
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United and Las Vegas Lights couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had New Mexico United at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, New Mexico United had 55% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 45%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.61 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New Mexico United and 1.83 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?

New Mexico United 2-2 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 64%, draw 20%, Las Vegas Lights 16%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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