New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New Mexico United v Las Vegas Lights — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-3
HT 1-1
Las Vegas Lights
USLP
2-2
HT 1-2
New Mexico United
USLP
New Mexico United 2-2 Las Vegas Lights — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United and Las Vegas Lights couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had New Mexico United at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.
On the day, New Mexico United had 55% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 45%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.61 to 1.55.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New Mexico United and 1.83 for Las Vegas Lights.
What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
New Mexico United 2-2 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 64%, draw 20%, Las Vegas Lights 16%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.