San Antonio 0-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.05
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
8%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 30% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
26%
Away Win
31%
-4.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Antonio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.25/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.64
+2% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
295 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
16.5 Crosses 23.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Antonio
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Lexington
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.17 xG 1.93
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 11
225 Passes 387
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2025 Lexington Lexington 2-3 HT 2-2 San Antonio San Antonio USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Antonio
0-1
AWAY Lexington
0.88 xG 1.13
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 0
404 Passes 227
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 5
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH San Antonio vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lexington edged past San Antonio 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was San Antonio at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, San Antonio had 62% of the ball to Lexington's 38%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.88 to 1.13.

What was the final score of San Antonio vs Lexington?

San Antonio 0-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Antonio vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Antonio win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split San Antonio 45%, draw 29%, Lexington 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (San Antonio), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Antonio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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