Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Las Vegas Lights v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals
Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-3
HT 1-1
Las Vegas Lights
USLP
2-2
HT 1-2
New Mexico United
USLP
0-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
Las Vegas Lights 2-3 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United edged past Las Vegas Lights 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Las Vegas Lights at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 36% of the ball to New Mexico United's 64%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 1.01 to 1.99.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Las Vegas Lights had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 1.33 for New Mexico United.
What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
Las Vegas Lights 2-3 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 44%, draw 25%, New Mexico United 31%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.