Morecambe 1-2 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 12 Nov 2024

Morecambe
1-2 HT 1-0
Carlisle United
📅12/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Futbol League Cup – 2024/2025

Morecambe vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.94
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.96
6+ Goals
10%
18.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 31%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.52/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.15
+8% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -74% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
307 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 73%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
24.7 Crosses 21.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.0

Morecambe vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.42 xG 1.11
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
227 Passes 243
60% Pass Accuracy 65%
18 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.11.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 0-2 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK
06.03.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-1 HT 2-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
27.10.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 3-1 HT 2-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
22.02.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-2 HT 1-2 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
07.12.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
12.11.2019 Morecambe Morecambe 3-1 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İNTK

Morecambe 1-2 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
1-2
AWAY Carlisle United
0.69 xG 2.40
31% Ball Possession 69%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
170 Passes 522
62% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United edged past Morecambe 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Carlisle United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Morecambe had 31% of the ball to Carlisle United's 69%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.69 to 2.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Carlisle United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Morecambe and 1.67 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Carlisle United?

Morecambe 1-2 Carlisle United in the England - Futbol League Cup on 12/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Morecambe win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 39%, draw 28%, Carlisle United 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Morecambe), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Morecambe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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