Barnsley 2-1 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
36%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.13
6+ Goals
9%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.67
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
14%
4.62
X/2
12%
7.34
X/X
8%
5.0
2/1
6%
23.45
2/2
18%
5.11
2/X
9%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
36%
Away Win
27%
+8.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.3pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barnsley EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +11%
1.04/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.25
-2% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
273 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 69%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
21.4 Crosses 15.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barnsley
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.88 xG 1.03
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
290 Passes 287
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-1 HT 0-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
04.03.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-0 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
16.08.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 3-0 HT 2-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
04.05.2019 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-1 HT 0-1 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
27.10.2018 Barnsley Barnsley 1-0 HT 1-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barnsley
2-1
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.74 xG 1.92
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
264 Passes 243
64% Pass Accuracy 64%
28 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Barnsley vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley edged past Bristol Rovers 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 24% / 36%) promised a tight game; Barnsley found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Barnsley had 52% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 48%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.74 to 1.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Barnsley had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Barnsley and 0.60 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Barnsley vs Bristol Rovers?

Barnsley 2-1 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barnsley vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Barnsley 40%, draw 24%, Bristol Rovers 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN1 More England - 1st Division
13 Jan 2024
18:00 Blackpool vs Exeter City Analysis →
18:00 Wycombe Wanderers vs Lincoln City Analysis →
18:00 Portsmouth vs Leyton Orient Analysis →
18:00 Northampton Town vs Wigan Athletic Analysis →
18:00 Carlisle United vs Oxford United Analysis →
18:00 Shrewsbury vs Stevenage Analysis →