Carlisle United 1-3 Oxford United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 13 Jan 2024

Carlisle United
1-3 HT 0-1
Oxford United
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Carlisle United vs Oxford United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.92
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 30% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.18
1/2
10%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
14%
6.82
X/2
12%
4.5
X/X
11%
4.34
2/1
9%
34.0
2/2
18%
2.89
2/X
9%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+4.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Carlisle United v Oxford United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford United EU Bookmakers 49%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -21%
1.00/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.94
-28% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
321 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 75%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
23.8 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Carlisle United vs Oxford United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlisle United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Oxford United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.26 xG 0.72
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
238 Passes 348
65% Pass Accuracy 71%
12 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Oxford United Oxford United 1-0 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
30.04.2016 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-2 HT 0-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN2
12.12.2015 Oxford United Oxford United 1-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
28.03.2015 Oxford United Oxford United 2-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
25.10.2014 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 0-1 Oxford United Oxford United İN2
19.11.2005 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 1-0 Oxford United Oxford United İN2

Carlisle United 1-3 Oxford United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlisle United
1-3
AWAY Oxford United
1.34 xG 1.21
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
289 Passes 418
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Carlisle United vs Oxford United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oxford United saw off Carlisle United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Oxford United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Carlisle United had 44% of the ball to Oxford United's 56%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.34 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oxford United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carlisle United and 1.33 for Oxford United.

What was the final score of Carlisle United vs Oxford United?

Carlisle United 1-3 Oxford United in the England - 1st Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlisle United vs Oxford United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Oxford United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Carlisle United 32%, draw 28%, Oxford United 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oxford United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Oxford United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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