Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-0 Canelas 2010 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.7pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Canelas 2010 EU Bookmakers 21%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.26/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.63
+35% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Canelas 2010
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.10.2023 Canelas 2010 Canelas 2010 0-2 HT 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
4-0
AWAY Canelas 2010
52% Ball Possession 48%
23 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Canelas 2010
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa ran out comfortable winners over Canelas 2010 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 52% of the ball to Canelas 2010's 48%, shots finished 23-6.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Canelas 2010?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 4-0 Canelas 2010 in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Canelas 2010?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 53%, draw 22%, Canelas 2010 25%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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