Oliveira Hospital 2-1 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.5
Draw
34%
3.54
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
4%
X/2
19%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
25%
-2.2pp
34%
Draw
25%
+9.1pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-6.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.6pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oliveira Hospital EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 54%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.04/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.50
-12% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +137%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 433 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oliveira Hospital
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 6
01.10.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-3 HT 0-1 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oliveira Hospital
2-1
AWAY Sporting Covilha
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oliveira Hospital edged past Sporting Covilha 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Covilha at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oliveira Hospital had 39% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 61%, shots finished 6-16.

What was the final score of Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting Covilha?

Oliveira Hospital 2-1 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oliveira Hospital vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Oliveira Hospital 23%, draw 34%, Sporting Covilha 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Covilha) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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