Backa Topola 1-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 13 Feb 2025

📅13/02/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
38%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.57
2-3 Goals
31%
1.79
4-5 Goals
30%
3.17
6+ Goals
10%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.3
1/2
11%
23.4
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
10%
7.45
X/2
13%
4.85
X/X
13%
4.94
2/1
10%
34.0
2/2
13%
2.72
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
28%
+9.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
46%
-8.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 50%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
323 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-3
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
0.24 xG 2.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
5 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
306 Passes 305
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok saw off Backa Topola 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Jagiellonia Bialystok found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Backa Topola had 52% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 48%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.24 to 2.28.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Backa Topola 1-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 13/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated an Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 37%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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