Pergolettese 1-0 Lumezzane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 Mar 2025

📅13/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.48
Over 2.5
33%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
5.48
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
22%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-5.4pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.5pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.9pp
67%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.0pp
33%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.1pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
1.31/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.21
+9% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
399 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pergolettese
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Lumezzane
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.10.2024 Lumezzane Lumezzane 0-2 HT 0-2 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
14.01.2024 Pergolettese Pergolettese 0-1 HT 0-0 Lumezzane Lumezzane İTC
10.09.2023 Lumezzane Lumezzane 1-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pergolettese
1-0
AWAY Lumezzane
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pergolettese vs Lumezzane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pergolettese edged past Lumezzane 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 32% / 34% — and on the day Pergolettese made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Pergolettese had 38% of the ball to Lumezzane's 62%, shots finished 12-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lumezzane led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Pergolettese and 0.67 for Lumezzane.

What was the final score of Pergolettese vs Lumezzane?

Pergolettese 1-0 Lumezzane in the Italy - Serie C on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pergolettese vs Lumezzane?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pergolettese win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Pergolettese 34%, draw 32%, Lumezzane 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
13 Mar 2025
20:30 Virtus Verona vs Trento AC Analysis →
20:30 Pro Patria vs Arzignano Valchiampo Analysis →
20:30 Renate vs Padova Calcio Analysis →
20:30 GIANA Erminio vs Caldiero Terme Analysis →
20:30 FeralpiSalo vs Clodiense Analysis →
22:45 Alcione vs Lecco Analysis →