Pergolettese 0-1 Lumezzane — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.6
Over 2.5
48%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.31
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
4.8
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pergolettese EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lumezzane EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.58/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/0.71
+18% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +75%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pergolettese
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lumezzane
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
10.09.2023 Lumezzane Lumezzane 1-0 HT 0-0 Pergolettese Pergolettese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pergolettese
0-1
AWAY Lumezzane
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pergolettese vs Lumezzane
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lumezzane edged past Pergolettese 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Pergolettese at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pergolettese had 57% of the ball to Lumezzane's 43%, shots finished 15-14.

What was the final score of Pergolettese vs Lumezzane?

Pergolettese 0-1 Lumezzane in the Italy - Serie C on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pergolettese vs Lumezzane?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pergolettese win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pergolettese 43%, draw 30%, Lumezzane 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Pergolettese) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pergolettese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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