Renate 3-2 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 Mar 2025

📅13/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.4
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
53%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.53
No
50%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.17
2-3 Goals
47%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
5.06
6+ Goals
6%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
28%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
15%
+3.0pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.1pp
53%
Away Win
60%
-7.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-7.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+7.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
36%
+14.4pp
50%
BTTS No
64%
-14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Renate EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 64%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
0.53/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.71
-38% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +0%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
290 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 458 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Renate
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Padova Calcio
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2024 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 Renate Renate İTC
03.03.2024 Renate Renate 0-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
24.10.2023 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-0 HT 0-0 Renate Renate İTC
25.03.2023 Renate Renate 2-0 HT 1-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
27.11.2022 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-1 HT 0-0 Renate Renate İTC
21.12.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-0 HT 1-0 Renate Renate İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Renate
3-2
AWAY Padova Calcio
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Renate vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Renate nicked a narrow win over Padova Calcio 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Padova Calcio at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Renate had 40% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 60%, shots finished 12-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Renate and 0.67 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Renate vs Padova Calcio?

Renate 3-2 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Renate vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Renate 18%, draw 29%, Padova Calcio 53%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5
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