Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 13 Mar 2026

📅13/03/2026 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
20%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.67
Over 2.5
50%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.99
No
46%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
46%
+7.3pp
46%
BTTS No
54%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 23%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.45/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.70
-8% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -34%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.10.2025 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 2-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
28.04.2025 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 2-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
16.02.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
26.08.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 2-3 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
07.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-0
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv squeezed past Septemvri Sofia 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Plovdiv as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 49% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 51%, shots finished 7-5.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.60 for Septemvri Sofia.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 13/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 55%, draw 25%, Septemvri Sofia 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✗ BTTS Yes
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13 Mar 2026
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