Newport County 1-2 Tranmere Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2024

Newport County
1-2 HT 1-2
Tranmere Rovers
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Tranmere Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
32%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.59
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.3
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
9%
6.29
X/2
12%
5.04
X/X
16%
4.79
2/1
11%
31.0
2/2
12%
3.16
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.9pp
32%
Away Win
41%
-9.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Tranmere Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Tranmere Rovers EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -16%
1.20/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.09
-21% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
249 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 69%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
22.0 Crosses 26.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.6

Newport County vs Tranmere Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Tranmere Rovers
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 0.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
192 Passes 266
59% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 2-1 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
18.03.2023 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 1-3 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
20.08.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 2-1 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
26.02.2022 Newport County Newport County 4-2 HT 0-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
21.08.2021 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 0-1 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
02.03.2021 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Newport County 1-2 Tranmere Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-2
AWAY Tranmere Rovers
1.82 xG 0.88
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 10
282 Passes 253
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 40
17 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Tranmere Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tranmere Rovers squeezed past Newport County 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Tranmere Rovers found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Newport County had 51% of the ball to Tranmere Rovers's 49%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.82 to 0.88 — on chances, Newport County could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Newport County and 1.17 for Tranmere Rovers.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Tranmere Rovers?

Newport County 1-2 Tranmere Rovers in the England - 2nd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Tranmere Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Newport County 37%, draw 30%, Tranmere Rovers 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newport County), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newport County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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