Walsall 1-3 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2024

Walsall
1-3 HT 0-2
Notts County
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Walsall vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.96
6+ Goals
15%
8.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.74
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
14%
4.87
X/2
10%
7.3
X/X
11%
5.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
2/2
14%
4.82
2/X
8%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Walsall v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Walsall EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.54/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/2.01
-4% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
297 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 75%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
21.4 Crosses 16.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6

Walsall vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Walsall
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Notts County
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.59 xG 0.42
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
168 Passes 429
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-0 Walsall Walsall İN2
20.07.2019 Notts County Notts County 2-1 HT 0-1 Walsall Walsall HAZ
03.04.2015 Walsall Walsall 0-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN1
01.11.2014 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-1 Walsall Walsall İN1
25.01.2014 Notts County Notts County 1-5 HT 0-3 Walsall Walsall İN1
17.08.2013 Walsall Walsall 1-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN1

Walsall 1-3 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Walsall
1-3
AWAY Notts County
2.14 xG 1.66
32% Ball Possession 68%
20 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
213 Passes 548
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
33 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Walsall vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County saw off Walsall 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Walsall at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Walsall had 32% of the ball to Notts County's 68%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.14 to 1.66 — on chances, Walsall could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Walsall had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Walsall and 1.00 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Walsall vs Notts County?

Walsall 1-3 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Walsall vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Walsall win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Walsall 44%, draw 26%, Notts County 30%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Walsall) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Walsall) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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