Swindon Town 3-2 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.7
No
56%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 32% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.37
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
14%
6.23
X/2
14%
4.96
X/X
14%
4.66
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
18%
3.17
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.7pp
56%
BTTS No
45%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.33/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.94
+19% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
314 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 72%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
16.6 Crosses 22.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
1W-2D-3L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.37 xG 1.47
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
376 Passes 200
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
17 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-0 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
22.04.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-5 HT 1-3 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
10.12.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
17.04.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 4-1 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
10.10.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
14.04.2017 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
3-2
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.70 xG 0.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
288 Passes 157
69% Pass Accuracy 54%
14 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town edged past AFC Wimbledon 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Wimbledon at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Swindon Town had 59% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 41%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.70 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Swindon Town and 1.67 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs AFC Wimbledon?

Swindon Town 3-2 AFC Wimbledon in the England - 2nd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 33%, draw 26%, AFC Wimbledon 41%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
13 Apr 2024
17:00 Walsall vs Notts County Analysis →
17:00 Gillingham vs Barrow Analysis →
17:00 Crewe Alexandra vs Grimsby Town Analysis →
17:00 Wrexham vs Forest Green Rovers Analysis →
17:00 Crawley Town vs Colchester Analysis →
17:00 Harrogate Town vs Sutton United Analysis →