Cremonese 1-2 Ternana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.51
Over 2.5
45%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.63
No
55%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
5.56
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
22%
2.64
6+ Goals
11%
6.32
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.56 — our 29% vs market 13.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.72
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.7
X/1
20%
3.88
X/2
7%
13.7
X/X
12%
7.12
2/1
7%
20.0
2/2
7%
9.52
2/X
7%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-11.9pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.2pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
36%
+18.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
64%
-18.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.7pp
55%
BTTS No
43%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cremonese EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Ternana EU Bookmakers 19%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.51/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.79
-29% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -15%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
419 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 75%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
26.3 Crosses 20.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cremonese
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Ternana
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.43 xG 0.81
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 Passes 292
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2023 Ternana Ternana 0-1 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
08.08.2022 Cremonese Cremonese 3-2 HT 2-0 Ternana Ternana İTK
26.02.2022 Ternana Ternana 1-2 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
02.10.2021 Cremonese Cremonese 2-0 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
03.03.2018 Ternana Ternana 2-1 HT 2-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
08.10.2017 Cremonese Cremonese 3-3 HT 1-3 Ternana Ternana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cremonese
1-2
AWAY Ternana
2.39 xG 1.95
75% Ball Possession 25%
27 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
595 Passes 148
91% Pass Accuracy 67%
36 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cremonese vs Ternana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ternana edged past Cremonese 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cremonese at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cremonese had 75% of the ball to Ternana's 25%, shots finished 27-11, expected goals 2.39 to 1.95 — on chances, Cremonese could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cremonese had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cremonese and 1.33 for Ternana.

What was the final score of Cremonese vs Ternana?

Cremonese 1-2 Ternana in the Italy - Serie B on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cremonese vs Ternana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cremonese win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Cremonese 53%, draw 26%, Ternana 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cremonese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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