Sampdoria 0-1 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.59
Over 2.5
49%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
4.9
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.66
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.2
X/1
16%
3.99
X/2
12%
7.65
X/X
12%
4.02
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
10%
6.56
2/X
8%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
59%
-8.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 27%
+11% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +1%
1.96/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.06
+28% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +33%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
389 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
18.6 Crosses 17.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sampdoria
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Südtirol
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.09 xG 1.02
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
575 Passes 274
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Südtirol Südtirol 3-1 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
14.08.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-1 HT 1-1 Südtirol Südtirol İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
0-1
AWAY Südtirol
0.87 xG 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
383 Passes 453
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Südtirol squeezed past Sampdoria 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sampdoria at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sampdoria had 46% of the ball to Südtirol's 54%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.87 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Südtirol led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sampdoria and 2.00 for Südtirol.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Südtirol?

Sampdoria 0-1 Südtirol in the Italy - Serie B on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 45%, draw 26%, Südtirol 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sampdoria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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