Parma 2-0 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 13 Apr 2024

Parma
2-0 HT 1-0
Spezia
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.62
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 25% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
15%
4.12
X/2
8%
9.26
X/X
13%
5.07
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
13%
6.97
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.7pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.45/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.61
-5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
21.6 Crosses 18.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Spezia
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.82 xG 0.98
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
333 Passes 345
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTB
27.02.2021 Spezia Spezia 2-2 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTA
25.10.2020 Parma Parma 2-2 HT 1-2 Spezia Spezia İTA
18.05.2018 Spezia Spezia 0-2 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTB
27.12.2017 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
2-0
AWAY Spezia
0.77 xG 0.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
347 Passes 372
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 14
6 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parma vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma got the better of Spezia 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Parma as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Parma had 48% of the ball to Spezia's 52%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.77 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Parma had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Parma and 0.80 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Parma vs Spezia?

Parma 2-0 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Parma 47%, draw 27%, Spezia 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Parma), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Parma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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