Bordeaux 2-3 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
8%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.59
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.9
X/1
15%
4.28
X/2
8%
7.64
X/X
12%
4.72
2/1
5%
24.85
2/2
13%
5.81
2/X
6%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bordeaux EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 29%
+11% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.89/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.33
-1% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
369 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.4 Crosses 15.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bordeaux
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bastia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 0.85
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
346 Passes 309
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 Bastia Bastia 3-1 HT 2-0 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR2
08.04.2023 Bordeaux Bordeaux 2-0 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
17.10.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 0-0 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR2
22.04.2017 Bordeaux Bordeaux 2-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR1
30.11.2016 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 0-0 Bordeaux Bordeaux FR1
20.03.2016 Bordeaux Bordeaux 1-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bordeaux
2-3
AWAY Bastia
1.88 xG 1.34
77% Ball Possession 23%
17 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 0
684 Passes 156
91% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 4
26 Crosses 1
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bordeaux vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia nicked a narrow win over Bordeaux 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Bordeaux at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bordeaux had 77% of the ball to Bastia's 23%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.88 to 1.34 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bordeaux.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bordeaux had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bordeaux and 1.00 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Bordeaux vs Bastia?

Bordeaux 2-3 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bordeaux vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bordeaux win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bordeaux 46%, draw 27%, Bastia 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bordeaux) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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