Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
43%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.21
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 32% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.56
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
12%
6.39
X/2
11%
4.93
X/X
8%
4.44
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
23%
3.16
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.2pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Quevilly EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 45%
+6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
1.12/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.10
+4% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
16.5 Crosses 19.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Quevilly
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Auxerre
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
0.74 xG 1.08
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
256 Passes 472
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 3-2 HT 1-2 Quevilly Quevilly FR2
26.02.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-0 HT 1-0 Quevilly Quevilly FR2
18.09.2021 Quevilly Quevilly 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
16.03.2018 Quevilly Quevilly 4-1 HT 2-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
20.10.2017 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 0-1 Quevilly Quevilly FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Quevilly
4-3
AWAY Auxerre
2.85 xG 2.20
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
291 Passes 468
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
40 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Quevilly vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Quevilly squeezed past Auxerre 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Auxerre at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Quevilly had 41% of the ball to Auxerre's 59%, shots finished 18-18, expected goals 2.85 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Auxerre led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Quevilly and 1.40 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Quevilly vs Auxerre?

Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 2 on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Quevilly vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated an Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Quevilly 33%, draw 25%, Auxerre 43%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Auxerre) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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