Valenciennes 1-4 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 13 Apr 2024

Valenciennes
1-4 HT 0-2
Pau
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Valenciennes vs Pau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.69
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.35
6+ Goals
7%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
4.44
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
16%
5.94
X/2
16%
4.95
X/X
16%
4.07
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.44
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valenciennes v Pau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
1.09/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.35
+8% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -78% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
17.3 Crosses 21.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.5

Valenciennes vs Pau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valenciennes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pau
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.32 xG 1.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 Passes 320
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.12.2023 Pau Pau 3-1 HT 1-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
13.05.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
17.09.2022 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
26.02.2022 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
18.09.2021 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
15.05.2021 Pau Pau 4-3 HT 3-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2

Valenciennes 1-4 Pau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valenciennes
1-4
AWAY Pau
0.62 xG 1.54
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 6
411 Passes 493
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Valenciennes vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pau swept aside Valenciennes 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pau as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valenciennes had 45% of the ball to Pau's 55%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.62 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pau led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Valenciennes and 1.67 for Pau.

What was the final score of Valenciennes vs Pau?

Valenciennes 1-4 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valenciennes vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Valenciennes 30%, draw 28%, Pau 42%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pau) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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